Listen, we have absolutely no idea what to expect from this track.
The Madring is brand new. Formula 1 has never raced here before, the teams have no previous Grand Prix data to fall back on, and most of us watching are flying completely blind. We can study the layout, look at simulations, and try to figure out which cars should suit the circuit, but until 20 Formula 1 cars actually hit the track, nobody truly knows what we’re getting.
And if the early Formula 3 running is any indication, things could get chaotic very quickly. F3 testing at the new Madrid circuit produced 19 red flags across two days, including 11 stoppages caused by drivers making contact with the barriers.
So yeah, predicting this race might be a little ridiculous.
Let’s do it anyway.
A Completely New Challenge
Madring is a 5.416-kilometre circuit featuring 22 corners and 57 race laps, combining public roads with purpose-built sections. That means we’re getting elements of a street circuit mixed with characteristics of a permanent track. Formula 1 expects cars to reach approximately 340 km/h, while elevation changes and heavy braking zones should add another challenge.
Then there’s Turn 12, La Monumental. It’s a massive banked corner stretching roughly half a kilometre, with banking of up to 24%. It’s unlike almost anything else currently on the calendar and could become one of Madrid’s signature features immediately.
Everything about this weekend screams unpredictability.
With that said, here are my podium predictions for the first Formula 1 race at the Madring.
P1 — George Russell
I’m going with George Russell to win the inaugural Madrid Grand Prix.
George has been one of the strongest and most consistent drivers on the grid this season, and I have a feeling he is going to arrive in Madrid driving with a little bit of a chip on his shoulder.
George finished P2 in Monza, which is obviously a great result, but I imagine he walked away somewhat annoyed after an odd strategy call from his garage potentially cost him a chance at the win. When you come that close and feel like there might have been more on the table, that can give you a little extra motivation heading into the next race.
And on a completely new circuit, I really like George’s chances. This weekend isn’t just going to be about outright pace. Drivers will have to learn the track quickly, understand where the limits are, and stay away from the barriers while everyone around them is figuring out the exact same thing.
That’s where I trust George.
Mercedes should once again give him a car capable of fighting at the front, and I think a motivated George Russell puts everything together and becomes the first Formula 1 driver to win at the Madring.
Prediction: George Russell wins in Madrid.
P2 — Lando Norris
For second place, I’m taking Lando Norris.
McLaren has been very strong as of late. Monza was a little disappointing by the standards they have set for themselves this season, but one weekend doesn’t erase what we have seen from them throughout the year.
Lando has been driving excellently this season and continues to put himself near the front on a consistent basis. McLaren should once again give him a car capable of fighting for the podium, and I expect Lando to bounce back quickly from a somewhat disappointing weekend in Italy.
On a brand-new circuit where everyone is learning at the same time, I trust Lando’s pace and the strength McLaren has shown recently. I don’t quite have him beating George this weekend, but I think he will be right there.
Prediction: Lando Norris finishes P2.
P3 — Max Verstappen
Finishing off my podium is Max Verstappen.
Max had another great outing at Monza, dragging a semi-broken car onto the podium and once again reminding everyone that you can never really count this guy out.
And honestly, sometimes the analysis doesn’t need to be complicated.
He’s Max Verstappen. Why would I doubt him?
Give Max a competitive car and he can win. Give him a difficult car and somehow he still finds a way to extract more from it than you thought was possible. Now we’re heading to a completely new circuit where adaptability could be incredibly important, and there aren’t many drivers I would trust more to figure things out quickly.
I have George and Lando slightly ahead of him this weekend, but leaving Max off the podium entirely feels like asking to be proven wrong.
Prediction: Max Verstappen finishes P3.
My Madrid Podium
🥇 P1 — George Russell
🥈 P2 — Lando Norris
🥉 P3 — Max Verstappen
Predicting the first race at a brand-new circuit is basically educated guessing. Nobody knows exactly how the tires will behave over a full Grand Prix distance, how easy overtaking will actually be, or which teams will immediately find the setup window. And after watching Formula 3 produce 19 red flags during testing, we don’t even know how clean the weekend is going to be.
That’s exactly why I’m excited.
For once, every team arrives without years of historical data telling them exactly what to expect. Everyone has to learn the Madring together.
George Russell, Lando Norris, and Max Verstappen are my podium picks.
Now let’s see how wrong I am.
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