Tomorrow is qualifying, yes, on a Friday, so let’s make some predictions.
With the Azerbaijan Grand Prix taking place on Saturday this year, the entire weekend has been moved forward by a day. That means qualifying comes tomorrow, and after Thursday’s two practice sessions, we have our first real look at who could be fighting for pole position in Baku.
Mercedes has looked strong, and so has Max Verstappen. George Russell topped both practice sessions, while Kimi Antonelli managed to finish P2 in FP2 despite barely participating in FP1 due to a hydraulic issue.
With that being said, here are my top three predictions for qualifying.
P1: George Russell
I’m taking George Russell for pole position.
George has been the fastest driver so far this weekend, finishing P1 in both FP1 and FP2. The Mercedes looks extremely comfortable around Baku, and George appears to have found confidence in the car immediately.
Of course, practice never guarantees anything once qualifying begins. Fuel loads, engine modes and track evolution can change the picture quickly. But based on everything we have seen so far, George is my pick to put the Mercedes on pole.
P2: Kimi Antonelli
I’m predicting an all Mercedes front row with Kimi Antonelli taking second.
Kimi’s Thursday was far from straightforward. A hydraulic problem severely limited his running in FP1, and he was also delayed getting onto the track in FP2 while Mercedes worked on the car.
Despite losing valuable track time at a street circuit where every lap matters, Kimi still recovered to finish P2 in FP2.
That is impressive.
With another practice session available before qualifying, Kimi should have an opportunity to make up for some of the running he lost on Thursday. If Mercedes maintains its pace, I expect the championship leader to be right near the front again.
P3: Max Verstappen
Never count out Max Verstappen.
Max finished P2 in FP1 and P3 in FP2, keeping himself near the front throughout Thursday. Mercedes may have had the advantage during practice, but Max has shown enough pace for me to believe he will be firmly involved in the fight during qualifying.
Baku also leaves very little room for error. One mistake around this circuit can completely ruin a qualifying lap, and Max is one of the drivers I trust most to put everything together when it matters.
I have him starting third.
My Top Three
P1: George Russell
P2: Kimi Antonelli
P3: Max Verstappen
Mercedes has given me every reason to be confident after Thursday’s running, but qualifying is where we will find out how much of that practice advantage is real.
George looks extremely strong, Kimi has already shown impressive pace despite losing significant track time, and Max remains right there waiting to capitalize if Mercedes slips up.
My prediction is a Mercedes front row lockout in Baku.
We’ll find out tomorrow.
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