October 23, 2026 | Ethical Sports Takes
Formula 1 heads to the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, for the United States Grand Prix, and Saturday’s qualifying session is shaping up to be a close battle.
Charles Leclerc topped the opening practice session for Ferrari, but Max Verstappen was right behind him. Mercedes also showed competitive pace, with George Russell finishing fourth and Kimi Antonelli fifth.
With several teams looking capable of fighting near the front, qualifying could come down to the smallest margins.
Here are our three predictions for Saturday’s session.
P1 — Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
Max Verstappen is the man to beat right now.
The four-time world champion has finished on the podium in each of his last five Grands Prix, including back-to-back victories in Malaysia and Singapore. He’s carrying serious momentum into Austin, and there’s little reason to believe that momentum will suddenly disappear.
Verstappen also has a strong history at the Circuit of the Americas, having won here in 2025.
His opening practice performance only strengthens the argument. Although he officially finished second behind Leclerc, Verstappen actually recorded a faster lap of 1:35.862 before it was deleted for exceeding track limits at Turn 19.
That tells us the speed is there. Now it’s about putting together a clean lap when it matters.
We’re backing Verstappen to continue his excellent run and take pole position.
P2 — Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
Ferrari has given us a reason to pay attention this weekend.
Leclerc topped FP1 with a time of 1:36.052, finishing just 0.084 seconds ahead of Verstappen. Ferrari has brought upgrades to Austin, and the early signs suggest the car is competitive.
Leclerc has always been capable of delivering an exceptional qualifying lap when the car is underneath him. If Ferrari can maintain its opening-session pace, he should be right in the fight for pole.
The question is whether he can find enough time to hold off Verstappen.
We think he’ll come close, but we’re predicting Leclerc to qualify second and secure a front-row starting position.
P3 — George Russell (Mercedes)
George Russell rounds out our predicted top three.
Russell finished fourth in FP1, 0.326 seconds behind Leclerc. That’s a gap Mercedes will want to close before qualifying, but the team is still firmly in contention.
Russell has shown he can deliver when the pressure is on, and Saturday presents another opportunity to put his Mercedes near the front.
The biggest challenge may come from his own teammate, Kimi Antonelli, who finished fifth in opening practice. Lando Norris will also be a threat after placing third.
Still, we’re backing Russell to find some additional pace and secure third on the grid.
Final Thoughts
Verstappen enters Austin in outstanding form, Ferrari has shown encouraging speed, and Mercedes remains close enough to challenge.
Our prediction is Verstappen on pole, Leclerc alongside him on the front row, and Russell starting third.
Of course, there’s still more practice to come, and the order could change before Saturday evening. But based on recent form and what we’ve seen so far at COTA, these are the three drivers we’re backing.
Who do you think will take pole position at the United States Grand Prix?
Ethical Sports Takes — Independent opinions. Real sports discussion.
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