Eight weeks into the 2026 NFL season, the Super Bowl picture looks considerably different from when I first introduced my championship confidence ratings after Week 5.
Back then, the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs accounted for 75% of my confidence. Seattle remained a serious threat, while Buffalo rounded out the four teams I trusted most.
Three weeks later, things have changed dramatically.
The Chicago Bears have forced their way into the conversation. Buffalo has strengthened its position. San Francisco remains among the teams I trust most, while Kansas City has fallen considerably following two consecutive defeats.
And the defending champion Seattle Seahawks? They’re no longer among my four contenders.
This isn’t a prediction of the playoff standings, nor is it a mathematical calculation of championship probabilities. It’s how I would distribute 100% of my personal confidence among the four teams I currently trust most to win Super Bowl LXI.
Here is my updated assessment following Week 8.
My Super Bowl Confidence Ratings
1. Buffalo Bills — 30%
Previous Confidence: 10% | Change: +20 percentage points
Buffalo has climbed from fourth in my original assessment to a three-way tie for first.
The Bills enter Week 9 at 6–1, having most recently dismantled the Baltimore Ravens 36–10.
Josh Allen remains one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in football, and Buffalo’s offense has consistently demonstrated its ability to put opponents under pressure.
However, my increased confidence doesn’t mean I’ve suddenly forgotten the Bills’ weaknesses.
Their defense remains a concern, particularly against teams capable of stretching the field and sustaining long drives. Buffalo’s dominant performance against Baltimore was encouraging, but the Ravens’ quarterback injuries made that matchup a less convincing test of the defense than the scoreline might suggest.
Nevertheless, Buffalo has done enough to earn a much larger share of my championship confidence.
Why They Might Not Win — Defensive Vulnerability
The Bills’ biggest obstacle remains their defense.
Buffalo cannot enter January expecting Allen to overcome every defensive breakdown. Against opponents such as San Francisco or Kansas City, giving up repeated scoring opportunities could prove costly.
Until this unit demonstrates consistent improvement against healthy, high-quality offenses, I’ll remain cautious.
For now, Buffalo receives 30% of my championship confidence.
2. Chicago Bears — 30%
Previous Confidence: Not Included | Change: New Entry
Chicago is the biggest addition to my championship confidence chart.
The Bears have gone from an intriguing NFC contender to a team I genuinely believe can win the Super Bowl.
Their 34–17 road victory over the Seattle Seahawks was a statement.
Seattle entered the matchup with one of the league’s strongest defenses, yet Chicago found ways to generate offense and control crucial stretches of the game.
D’Andre Swift scored three touchdowns, while Caleb Williams helped guide an offense that consistently challenged Seattle.
What impresses me about Chicago is that its success no longer feels dependent on one aspect of the team performing perfectly.
The Bears have developed into a balanced opponent capable of winning difficult games, and their performance in Seattle demonstrated that they deserve to be taken seriously.
Why They Might Not Win — Postseason Experience
My biggest concern with Chicago is whether this team can maintain its level of execution when the stakes become considerably higher.
Winning an important regular-season game on the road is impressive. Navigating the NFC playoffs and defeating several quality opponents consecutively is another challenge entirely.
The Bears must prove they can handle the pressure, avoid costly mistakes, and continue executing when facing postseason defenses.
Chicago has earned its place among my four contenders, but January will provide the ultimate examination.
The Bears receive 30% of my championship confidence.
3. San Francisco 49ers — 30%
Previous Confidence: 40% | Change: -10 percentage points
San Francisco remains one of the teams I trust most to win Super Bowl LXI.
The 49ers entered their Week 8 bye with a 6–1 record, and their position among the NFL’s strongest teams is well deserved.
Kyle Shanahan continues to provide an offensive system capable of creating opportunities for his playmakers, while San Francisco’s defense remains one of the better units in football.
The 49ers possess something I value tremendously in a championship contender: balance.
They don’t necessarily need their quarterback to produce an extraordinary individual performance every week to win.
Their running game, defensive discipline, and coaching give them multiple ways to defeat quality opponents.
So why have I reduced their confidence rating from 40% to 30%?
Not because I suddenly trust San Francisco less. The emergence of Chicago and Buffalo’s continued success have simply made the championship picture more competitive.
Why They Might Not Win — Injuries
This remains the same concern I highlighted in October.
San Francisco has dealt with significant injury problems, and while the team has demonstrated remarkable resilience, there is a limit to how much adversity a roster can overcome.
A deep playoff run requires depth, health, and consistent execution.
If the 49ers enter January without several important contributors, their championship prospects could suffer.
San Francisco remains one of my three most trusted contenders and receives 30% of my championship confidence.
4. Kansas City Chiefs — 10%
Previous Confidence: 35% | Change: -25 percentage points
This is the most dramatic fall in my championship confidence ratings.
Three weeks ago, Kansas City was undefeated and looked capable of challenging San Francisco for the top spot.
Today, the Chiefs have lost two consecutive games, including a painful 28–24 defeat against the Denver Broncos.
Kansas City held an 11-point fourth-quarter lead against Denver before allowing the Broncos to complete the comeback.
Even more concerning was the Chiefs’ inability to finish the game after reaching first-and-goal at Denver’s four-yard line in the final minute.
A team with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback should be capable of closing out those opportunities.
The Chiefs still possess one of the NFL’s most talented quarterbacks, an experienced head coach in Andy Reid, and enough offensive weapons to challenge opponents.
Kenneth Walker III has improved their rushing attack, providing an element that makes the offense more difficult to defend.
But Kansas City has not played like a team I can confidently place alongside Buffalo, Chicago, and San Francisco.
Why They Might Not Win — No True No. 1 Receiver, Lack of Sacks, and Failure to Close Games
Kansas City’s biggest problem is its receiving corps, and I don’t believe this team can win Super Bowl LXI without acquiring a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver.
Patrick Mahomes remains an extraordinary quarterback, but even he needs a reliable primary target who can consistently create separation, win contested catches, and command defensive attention.
The Chiefs cannot continue expecting Mahomes to manufacture a championship offense by throwing primarily to gadget players and running backs.
Those players can be valuable contributors, but they cannot replace a true No. 1 receiver.
Against elite playoff defenses, Kansas City needs someone who can win individual matchups when the opposing defense knows the ball is coming his way.
There is also a major concern on the other side of the football.
Kansas City’s pass rush has struggled to finish plays despite generating pressure. By the rankings I’m using, the Chiefs sit seventh in quarterback pressures but an alarming 31st in sacks.
That disparity is unacceptable for a team with Super Bowl ambitions.
Pressuring quarterbacks is important, but repeatedly allowing them to escape the pocket or extend plays can be disastrous against the NFL’s best offenses.
Kansas City must start converting those pressures into sacks, particularly in critical third-down situations.
Then there is the issue of closing games.
The Chiefs had multiple opportunities to defeat Denver and failed to execute when it mattered most. Championship teams cannot consistently leave the door open for opponents.
But the most immediate concern is one that general manager Brett Veach can still address.
The NFL trade deadline is Tuesday, November 10, at 4 p.m. Eastern, just six days away.
If Veach sits on his hands for the next six days and fails to acquire a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver, I do not believe this season will end the way Kansas City wants it to.
This isn’t about adding another rotational receiver or a player who occasionally produces an explosive play. The Chiefs need a genuine difference-maker.
Mahomes can elevate the players around him, but there are limits to how much any quarterback can compensate for a receiving corps without a dependable top option.
Kansas City has a championship window, an elite quarterback, and an opportunity to address an obvious weakness before the deadline.
Failing to act would be a serious mistake.
The Chiefs remain in my four-team championship conversation because of Mahomes and Reid, but their current roster construction and recent performances justify only 10% of my confidence.
Why Seattle Is No Longer a Super Bowl Contender
Seattle is the most notable omission from my updated championship confidence ratings, and its exclusion is entirely deliberate.
The Seahawks received 15% of my confidence after Week 5. Three weeks later, I no longer believe they deserve a place among the four teams capable of winning Super Bowl LXI.
Let’s start with the most basic issue: if the playoffs began today, Seattle would not be in them.
The defending champions have fallen to 4–4 after losing three of their last four games, including Monday night’s embarrassing 34–17 home defeat against Chicago.
And while Seattle’s defense remains talented, its offense has too many weaknesses for me to consider this team a legitimate championship threat.
The Seahawks cannot consistently run the football.
They managed only 81 rushing yards against Chicago, even after making changes to their offensive line and welcoming back important running backs.
Without a dependable rushing attack, Seattle places far too much responsibility on its passing game.
And that passing game has become excessively dependent on Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
JSN is an outstanding receiver, but he cannot be expected to carry the entire offense every week. Opposing defenses know where Seattle wants to go with the football, and the Seahawks have struggled to establish reliable alternatives.
Sam Darnold’s recent performances have done little to inspire confidence, either.
Against Chicago, Darnold completed just 17 of 34 passes for 188 yards, and his fourth-quarter interception helped the Bears put the game away.
I simply do not trust this version of Seattle’s offense to navigate the NFC playoffs, even if the Seahawks manage to qualify.
A talented defense and an exceptional receiver are not enough when the running game is ineffective and the quarterback isn’t playing consistently well.
Seattle might improve as the season progresses, but based on what I’ve seen through eight weeks, I do not see the Seahawks coming out of the NFC.
They are not a Super Bowl contender in my eyes.
Final Thoughts
The difference between my Week 5 and Week 8 assessments illustrates how quickly the NFL championship picture can change.
San Francisco and Kansas City previously dominated my confidence ratings, combining for 75%.
Now, Buffalo, Chicago, and San Francisco share the top spot at 30% each, while Kansas City clings to the remaining 10%.
The Chiefs’ decline is particularly concerning.
Kansas City still has Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, but reputation alone will not deliver another Lombardi Trophy.
The Chiefs need a legitimate No. 1 receiver, improved sack production, and better execution in the closing stages of games.
With the November 10 trade deadline approaching, Brett Veach faces a decision that could determine how far this team advances.
Chicago’s emergence is equally significant. The Bears have earned their place through their performances, and their victory in Seattle was enough to convince me they belong in the championship conversation.
Buffalo remains dangerous behind Josh Allen, while San Francisco continues to offer the balance and coaching required to compete deep into January.
As for Seattle, I have seen enough to remove the defending champions from my championship confidence chart. A team struggling to run the football, relying heavily on one receiver, and sitting outside the current playoff picture has no business receiving a share of my confidence.
There is still plenty of football remaining, and these ratings could look completely different in another month.
But after eight weeks, these are the four teams I trust most to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Which team do you have the most confidence in to win Super Bowl LXI? Is there another contender I’m overlooking?
Let us know in the comments, and remember to like, share, and subscribe to Ethical Sports Takes for more NFL analysis, rankings, predictions, and coverage.
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